Although Japan was one of the first countries to experience just how disruptive the novel coronavirus is, as was seen in its inept handling of the Diamond Princess cruise ship incident in February 2020, residents here were (technically) spared one key containment strategy of the pandemic: lockdown. People living in Japan will tell you they never locked down during the pandemic. Restaurants were “asked” to close early and not serve alcohol after a certain time, companies were “encouraged” to have employees go remote (which usually meant working from home just once or twice a week), and social events were (and continue to be) cancelled out of an abundance of caution, but schools remained open and the government couldn’t, by law, force people to stay home. People were even free to travel abroad, knowing they’d be let back in, so long as they endured quarantine measures on return and were Japanese nationals.
It’s been nearly 900 days since Japan closed its borders to foreigners. There has been talk of opening the country back up for well over a year, rhetoric peaking predictably when case numbers are low. Each time, the government takes baby steps to let in business people or students, only to rescind opening measures when case numbers shoot back up. Opening talks ebb and flow to the whims of public opinion and electoral schedules as COVID variant waves come and go with little change in the status quo. Politicians don’t want to take responsibility for making decisions (an apparent prerequisite for the job on both sides of the Pacific) and no one wants to admit that the racist border measures are completely ineffective (i.e., SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t care what passport you carry and will gladly hitch a ride in a Japanese national’s nasal passages).
Will opening the country back up result in another COVID surge? Maybe. Probably. But the thing is, not opening up has done little-to-nothing to prevent surges. We’re in the midst of the biggest surge yet, hovering around 200,000 new cases daily for the past month, even though the borders are still closed and masking is near universal.
The dirty secret, which I think everyone knows, is that Japanese people in general don’t want to reopen. They’re reluctant to change and, quite frankly, don’t find everything about pre-pandemic life ideal.
I lived in Hawaii for two years in my twenties. Absolutely loved it. Beautiful place, nice people, great food. But my god, the tourists around Waikiki and Ala Moana were horrible. Especially the Japanese ones. Loud, rude, clueless about local etiquette, just a pain in the ass making the whole area uninviting for residents. But here’s the thing: tourists are horrible everywhere there are too many of them from the same country. Be it Americans in Paris, Chinese in Rome, or Japanese in Waikiki, the more there are the worse they behave. Your home becomes a zoo for their amusement and, in certain areas, you’re a caged animal in your own country.
That’s what changed here in Japan. All of the tourists disappeared and suddenly places like Kyoto and Nara weren’t overrun year round. Even here in Sapporo, where I used to see huge Chinese tour groups talking way too loudly and bumping into people as they bought name brand bags, it’s much more peaceful going shopping downtown or eating out. People who made a living off tourism continue to suffer, but for the average citizen it’s great. Traveling in-country during the pandemic is fantastic.
For three-quarters of people here, the status quo is preferable to the uncertainty of reopening. Japan is a risk-adverse society and it’s hard to predict exactly what will happen if they reopen. Hospitals (along with politicians’ spines) are easily strained, and concerns about the healthcare system being able to handle sick tourists, foreigners following mask guidelines, and the government being able manage an influx of visitors are all legitimate worries that may sway people away from favoring open borders. And, when the cards are on the table, I just don’t think Japanese people see being cut off from the world as a negative. For an already inward-looking country, closing the borders hasn’t been as catastrophic as some might assume.
Will Japan reopen? Sure, eventually. They can’t remain closed forever. But, when that day does come, I think many people won’t be happy about it.